thesis-to-trades

Convert an investment thesis or framework into a gap analysis against current holdings, producing specific trade recommendations to align the portfolio with the thesis. Use when the user says "apply this framework to my portfolio", "what am I missing from this thesis", "align my portfolio with", "investment framework", "thesis to trades", "map my holdings to this strategy", or shares an investment thesis and asks how their portfolio compares.

Thesis-to-Trades Converter

Bridge the gap between investment ideas and portfolio action. Take an investment thesis, framework, or strategy document and convert it into a concrete gap analysis with specific trades.

Process

Step 1: Parse the Thesis

Extract from the user's thesis/framework:

  • Layers/Categories: What are the investment categories? (e.g., AI chips, energy, defense)
  • Specific tickers: Any named companies or ETFs
  • Allocation guidance: Suggested percentages per category
  • Time horizon: How long is the thesis expected to play out?
  • Risk factors: What could invalidate the thesis?
  • Conviction levels: Which bets are highest conviction?

Structure the thesis as a table:

| Category | Target % | Key Tickers | Conviction | Time Horizon |

Step 2: Map Current Holdings

For each position in the portfolio, assign it to a thesis category:

  • Aligned: Position directly maps to a thesis category
  • Adjacent: Position is related but not a primary thesis pick
  • Unaligned: Position has no thesis support
  • Contradictory: Position bets against the thesis

Step 3: Gap Analysis

For each thesis category, calculate:

  • Current exposure: Sum of aligned + adjacent positions
  • Target exposure: Based on thesis allocation guidance
  • Gap: Dollar amount under/over-allocated
  • Coverage quality: Are you holding the RIGHT tickers, or just the right category?

Flag:

  • Categories with 0% exposure (complete gaps)
  • Categories where you hold adjacent but not primary picks
  • Categories where you're significantly over-allocated vs thesis

Step 4: Generate Trade Plan

Produce specific trades to close gaps:

For OVER-allocated categories:

  • Which specific positions to trim
  • How many shares to sell
  • Use proceeds to fund under-allocated categories

For UNDER-allocated categories:

  • Which specific tickers to buy (from thesis)
  • Dollar amount per position
  • Priority order (largest gaps first)

For UNALIGNED positions:

  • Evaluate if they serve a purpose outside the thesis (diversification, hedge)
  • If not, recommend selling and redeploying

Step 5: Sanity Check

Before presenting the plan, verify:

  • Does the plan maintain adequate diversification?
  • Are we concentrating too heavily based on one person's thesis?
  • What happens to the portfolio if the thesis is WRONG?
  • Are there contrarian positions worth keeping as hedges?

Important Notes

  • Disclaimer: "This is analytical modeling based on a stated thesis, not investment advice. No thesis is guaranteed — always maintain diversification."
  • Never present trade recommendations as certainties
  • Always show what happens if the thesis is wrong

Always include a "What if the thesis is wrong?" section with specific risks.

Output Format

THESIS ALIGNMENT REPORT

Thesis: [Name/Source]
Portfolio: $XXX,XXX across X accounts

ALIGNMENT SCORE: X/10

CATEGORY BREAKDOWN:
| Category | Thesis Target | Current | Gap | Action |

MISSING EXPOSURES (highest priority):
- [Category]: $X,XXX needed → Buy [Ticker] at $X,XXX

OVER-EXPOSURES:
- [Category]: $X,XXX over → Trim [Ticker] by X shares

UNALIGNED POSITIONS:
- [Ticker]: $X,XXX — no thesis support → [Sell / Keep as hedge]

TRADE SEQUENCE:
[Ordered list of specific trades]

THESIS RISK FACTORS:
- If [assumption] is wrong: [impact on portfolio]

Profile Integration

Before starting analysis, check for the user's financial profile:

  1. Read profile/holdings.md for complete current holdings (needed for thesis alignment analysis)

If profile exists:

  • Use stored holdings to avoid re-requesting account positions
  • Flag positions that appear in profile but don't fit the thesis
  • Reference prior theses from history (if any) to show evolution of strategy
  • Provide updated trade sequence based on latest holdings data

If profile doesn't exist:

  • Request complete holdings snapshot for analysis
  • Offer to save holdings and thesis alignment for next check

After completing analysis, append a summary to profile/history.md:

## [Date] — Thesis Alignment
- **Action**: [Thesis analyzed - include thesis source/name]
- **Key findings**: [Alignment score, top 2 gaps, biggest unaligned positions]
- **Recommendations**: [Highest-priority trades, estimated impact of full alignment, thesis shelf life]

Important Notes

  • No single thesis should dictate 100% of a portfolio. Always maintain some diversification beyond the thesis.
  • Flag if the thesis is from a single source (YouTube, newsletter, influencer) — concentration of information sources is as dangerous as concentration of positions.
  • Investment theses have shelf lives. Note when the thesis should be re-evaluated.