Monitor macroeconomic signals and generate actionable portfolio alerts. Use when the user says "check macro signals", "macro radar", "is a crash coming", "should I be worried about the market", "what macro risks should I watch", "Japan debt crisis", "VIX check", "market risk assessment", "black swan signals", "when should I deploy cash", or asks about any macroeconomic indicator's impact on their portfolio.

Macro Signal Radar

Monitor key macroeconomic signals and translate them into specific portfolio actions. This is NOT about predicting the market — it's about having pre-defined playbooks for known risk scenarios.

Signal Categories

Tier 1: High-Impact Signals (check weekly)

Read references/signal-definitions.md for detailed thresholds and data sources.

1. VIX (Fear Index)

Source: CBOE Volatility Index
Use web search to get current VIX level
Thresholds and actions defined in reference file

2. US 10-Year Treasury Yield

Source: US Treasury
Impacts: Growth stock valuations, mortgage rates, risk appetite
Thresholds and actions defined in reference file

3. Japan 10-Year Government Bond Yield

Source: Bank of Japan
Why it matters: Japan is largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. Rising Japanese yields incentivize repatriation of capital from US assets.
This is the "Black Swan" signal from the Nicolas Yang framework

4. US Dollar Index (DXY)

Source: ICE
Impacts: International holdings, commodity prices, emerging markets

Tier 2: Sector Signals (check monthly)

5. Oil Price (WTI Crude)

Impacts: Energy stocks, inflation, consumer spending, transportation

6. Gold Price

Impacts: Gold holdings, inflation expectations, geopolitical risk sentiment

7. Semiconductor Book-to-Bill Ratio

Impacts: AI/chip thesis, capacity utilization

8. Data Center Power Demand Forecasts

Impacts: Nuclear/energy thesis, utility stocks, cooling companies

Tier 3: Policy Signals (check quarterly)

9. Federal Reserve Rate Decisions

Impacts: Everything — valuation multiples, bond prices, housing

10. US Defense Budget Trajectory

Impacts: Defense stocks (PLTR, LMT, RTX)

11. Tariff Policy Changes

Impacts: Industrials, manufacturing, international supply chains

How to Run a Macro Check

Use web search to gather current levels for all Tier 1 signals
Compare to thresholds in reference file
Generate a signal dashboard:

MACRO RADAR — [Date]

Signal                  | Current  | Status  | Trigger Level | Action
------------------------|----------|---------|--------------|--------
VIX                     | XX.X     | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | >30          | [action]
US 10Y Yield            | X.XX%    | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | >5.0%        | [action]
Japan 10Y Yield         | X.XX%    | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | >1.5%        | [action]
DXY                     | XXX.X    | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | >110         | [action]
Oil (WTI)               | $XX.XX   | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | >$120        | [action]
Gold                    | $X,XXX   | 🟢/🟡/🔴 | >$3,500      | [action]

For any 🔴 signal, provide detailed analysis and specific portfolio actions
For any 🟡 signal, note what would push it to 🔴

Scenario Playbooks

For each major risk scenario, provide a pre-defined action plan. Read references/scenario-playbooks.md for details:

Japan Debt Crisis: What to sell, what to buy, cash deployment strategy
US Recession: Defensive rotation plan
AI Bubble Pop: How to protect AI-heavy portfolios
Energy Crisis: Which positions benefit, which suffer
Stagflation: Gold/commodity tilt + defensive equity rotation

Output

Always end with:

Overall risk level (Low / Elevated / High / Critical)
Top 1-2 actions to take RIGHT NOW
Signals to watch most closely this week/month
"Next check recommended: [date]"

Profile Integration

Before starting analysis, check for the user's financial profile:

Read profile/holdings.md for current holdings and asset allocation (to contextualize macro signal impact)

If profile exists:

Use holdings to explain which positions are most affected by each macro signal
Provide signal assessment filtered to relevant asset classes (e.g., if not in crypto, skip crypto-specific signals)
Reference prior macro checks from history for trend analysis

If profile doesn't exist:

Provide general macro signal assessment
Offer to save holdings snapshot for next macro check

After completing analysis, append a summary to profile/history.md:

## [Date] — Macro Radar Check
- **Action**: [Routine check / Response to specific event]
- **Key findings**: [Overall risk level, most relevant signals for user's portfolio, market regime assessment]
- **Recommendations**: [Signals to watch most closely, portfolio positioning adjustments if any]

Important Notes

Disclaimer: "This is macroeconomic commentary, not investment advice. Markets are unpredictable — no signal guarantees future outcomes."
Never present macro signals as trading instructions
Always note that individual circumstances should drive decisions, not macro headlines

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