risk-assess

Risk assessment — client profiling, portfolio stress testing, Sharpe ratio, VaR, max drawdown. Use when asked about risk, stress test, or portfolio safety.

Risk Assessment

Step 1: Risk Profile Questionnaire

If no risk profile exists at ~/.wealthstack/risk-profile.json, run the questionnaire:

  1. Investment horizon? A) <3yr B) 3-7yr C) 7-15yr D) 15yr+
  2. React to 20% drop? A) Sell all B) Sell some C) Hold D) Buy more
  3. Income dependency? A) Primary source B) Some C) None D) Still accumulating
  4. Experience? A) Beginner B) Intermediate C) Advanced D) Professional
  5. Max tolerable loss? A) <10% B) 10-20% C) 20-40% D) 40%+

Score: A=1, B=2, C=3, D=4. Total 5-8=Conservative, 9-12=Moderate, 13-16=Growth, 17-20=Aggressive.

Save to ~/.wealthstack/risk-profile.json.

Step 2: Portfolio Risk Metrics

Load portfolio from ~/.wealthstack/portfolios/. Calculate:

  • Portfolio Beta (vs Nifty 50)
  • Annualized Volatility
  • Sharpe Ratio (risk-free = RBI repo rate)
  • Sortino Ratio
  • Maximum Drawdown (trailing 3yr)
  • VaR (95% confidence, 1-month)

Step 3: Stress Testing

Run through: 2008 Crisis (-60% Nifty), COVID Crash (-38%), 2022 Rate Shock (-17%), Taper Tantrum 2013 (-12%), Demonetization (-6%).

Step 4: Alignment

Compare portfolio risk vs client profile. Report: ALIGNED / TOO_AGGRESSIVE / TOO_CONSERVATIVE with specific remediation.