Sales Pipeline (Cash Machine)

When to Apply

• Managing deal flow through the sales pipeline
• Detecting and resolving pipeline bottlenecks
• Revenue forecasting
• When deals stall or pipeline health degrades
• Onboarding pipeline configuration

Core Framework

10-Step B2B Pipeline (Default)

Step	Name	Completion Criteria
1	Prospect Identified	Prospect entered into system
2	Qualified	Confirmed: problem, budget, authority, timeline, fit, margin
3	Needs Assessed	Gathered information to understand specific needs
4	Needs Confirmed	Prospect agrees with our understanding
5	Overview Presented	Product overview delivered (no detailed pricing)
6	Proposal Submitted	Solution proposal + technical feasibility demonstrated
7	Demo/Trial	Customized demo or trial for specific conditions
8	Quote Submitted	Formal pricing presented upon request
9	Negotiation	Active negotiation on price/terms/timeline
10	Closed Won	Purchase order or contract signed

3 Pipeline Presets

• B2B SaaS (default): Full 10-step pipeline above
• B2C / PLG: Simplified funnel: Visitor -> Signup -> Activation -> Conversion -> Retention
• Enterprise / Complex Sales: Extended with relationship mapping, multi-stakeholder tracking

Verifiable Checkpoints

Each step has an objective verification criterion — no advancement on belief alone:

Step	Verification	Method
1	Prospect exists in system	CRM record created (automated)
2	All BANT fields populated	Data completeness check (automated)
3	Needs document exists	File/note attached (automated)
4	Prospect confirmation received	Email/message logged (semi-automated)
5	Presentation delivered	Calendar event + follow-up sent (automated)
6	Proposal document sent	Email delivery confirmed (automated)
7	Demo/trial completed	Calendar event or trial account activated (automated)
8	Quote delivered	Email delivery + open tracking (automated)
9	Negotiation active	Reply/counter-proposal within 14 days (automated)
10	Contract signed	Signed document in system (automated)

Trajectory logging: Full decision trajectory logged per deal — not just outcome, but WHY each approach was chosen. Correct outcomes from terrible processes are flagged.

Bottleneck Detection

Formula: utilization = actual_throughput / theoretical_capacity x 100%

Step 2 (Qualification):    capacity 200/mo  actual 150  util: 75%
Step 7 (Demo/Trial):       capacity  30/mo  actual  27  util: 90% <- BOTTLENECK
Step 9 (Negotiation):      capacity  50/mo  actual  18  util: 36%

When any step exceeds 80% utilization: flag as emerging bottleneck.

At 90%+, apply TOC 5 Focusing Steps:

1. IDENTIFY: Demo is the constraint
2. EXPLOIT: Optimize scheduling, pre-qualify, batch similar demos, recorded demos for screening
3. SUBORDINATE: Reduce upstream lead gen to match demo capacity
4. ELEVATE: Increase capacity (hire, self-service trial)
5. REPEAT: Re-analyze for next bottleneck

Lead Qualification Gate (BANT 6-Criteria)

Quality gate at marketing-sales handoff:

Criteria	Check
Problem	Prospect has a problem our product solves
Budget	Budget allocated or likely
Authority	Decision-maker engaged or accessible
Timeline	Reasonable purchase timeframe
Fit	Product capability matches need
Margin	Achievable margin above threshold

• Qualified -> Pipeline Step 2
• Unqualified -> Nurture sequence (NOT pipeline)
• When bottleneck is downstream: pumping more unqualified leads only lengthens queues

Pipeline Velocity & Stall Detection

Track average days per step. Stall threshold: 2x average at current step.

Stalled deals (>2x average):
  Acme Corp: stuck at Step 5 for 38 days (avg 8) <- STALLED
  BetaCo: stuck at Step 7 for 42 days (avg 19)   <- STALLED

Investigate stall cause, propose unblock Actions.

Two-Tier Probability Scoring

Component	Source	Example
Stage probability	Historical conversion at that step	Step 7: 65%
Deal-specific probability	Agent assessment of deal signals	80% (high engagement)
Weighted forecast	value x stage% x deal%	$24K x 65% x 80% = $12.5K

BBS (Backlog-Bookings-Shipments) Tracking

Opening Pipeline:    $450K
+ New Qualified:     $120K
- Closed Won:        $85K
- Closed Lost:       $45K
- Disqualified:      $15K
= Closing Pipeline:  $425K

Pipeline-to-quota ratio: 3.2x (healthy > 3x)

End-of-Quarter Syndrome Detection

Monitor monthly closing pattern within quarters:

Month 1: $45K (23%)  Month 2: $52K (27%)  Month 3: $98K (50%)
-> 50% concentrated in final month = END-OF-QUARTER SYNDROME

Risks: discount escalation, operations overload, backlog rollover.

Proposals: monthly targets, level pipeline flow, eliminate quarter-end discount authority.

Decision Rules

1. Verification before advancement — no step completion without objective evidence
2. Bottleneck at 80%+ utilization — flag emerging constraints early
3. Subordinate to constraint — don't generate more leads than downstream can handle
4. Stall at 2x average — investigate immediately
5. Pipeline-to-quota > 3x — healthy pipeline coverage
6. Monthly, not quarterly — even flow prevents syndrome

Anti-Patterns to Detect

Anti-Pattern	Signal	Response
Advancement without verification	Steps marked complete on belief	"Verification checkpoint required. What's the objective evidence?"
Upstream flooding	Lead gen outpacing demo capacity	"Generating more leads than downstream can handle is waste."
Stalled deal ignored	Deal at 2x+ average dwell time	"This deal is stalled. Investigate and propose unblock action."
Quarter-end concentration	>40% of closes in final month	"End-of-quarter syndrome. Set monthly targets instead."
Low pipeline coverage	Pipeline-to-quota < 2x	"Pipeline drying up. Accelerate lead gen Driver."

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Anticipative Execution Reminder

When applying this framework, produce the FULL output immediately. Do not ask the founder which parts to analyze or which options to consider. Infer from business context, present the complete deliverable, and let the founder react to concrete work — not abstract choices.